Markets at a Glance

March 3, 2004


Kathy Findlay
Vice President &   
 Investment Advisor

Phone: (604) 257-7055
Fax: (604) 681-4262
kathy.findlay@rbc.com

Irfhan Jiwani
Associate
Phone: (604) 257-7077
irfhan.jiwani@rbc.com

Key Market Facts

March 3, 2004

  Level YTD
Indices    
S&P 500 1,151.03 3.52%
DJIA 10,593.11 1.33%
S&P/TSX 8,763.99 6.61%
Currencies / Commodities
CAD / US 1.3385 3.34%
US / EURO 1.2169 -2.90%
Gold $US 393.30 -5.62%
Crude Oil $US 35.80 10.09%
Natural Gas $US 5.375 -13.15%
Interest Rates
Canadian Bank Rate 2.50% -0.50
Canadian Prime Rate 4.00% -0.50
Fed Funds Rate 1.00% 0.00
Us Prime Rate 4.00% 0.00

Government Bond Yields


US
Canada
2 Year
1.74%

2.47%

5 Year
3.04%
3.76%
10 Year
4.07%

4.48%

30 Year
4.92%

5.05%



Diversification with Small Cap

As investors we are all aware of the benefits of diversification within our portfolios. Diversification within a portfolio can be done in a number of different ways; within asset classes, across various sectors, across different manager styles and across various countries.

I have included with this article a chart illustrating the benefits of asset allocation and diversification within various sectors. The diagram illustrates very clearly why asset allocation is important and why sticking with a disciplined process works so well. Process works because of consistency – consistency in the face of an ever-changing market environment. As we never know each year what part of the market will perform the best, diversifying among asset classes with a disciplined process works best over time.

Investing a portion of your equity portfolio into small cap stocks is one way to increase your portfolio diversification. Traditionally small cap investments have performed well in an economic recovery. Smaller companies are more adaptable and can easily re-deploy resources to suit a growing economy.

Recently I have received a number of questions on what is the best way to participate in the growth in China. There is not simply one answer to this question as there are a number of ways one can approach this market however Canadian small cap securities is one way that I believe is worth considering.

Due to extremely low labour costs, the Chinese are not likely to import many manufactured products from Canada. China however is very interested in Canada’s natural resources and industrial products. There are a few strong large cap companies in these sectors however the bulk of them fall within the small to mid cap range. I believe that owning a small amount of small to mid cap companies makes sense for the overall portfolio. I recommend that investors hold between 15 to 20% of their equity portfolio in the small-mid cap sector.

In my opinion the best way to participate in this sector is via a mutual fund. There are too many individual companies to make it practical to invest directly in them. By purchasing a well-diversified mutual fund you can participate in the growth opportunities of 60-100 companies in this sector therefore minimizing your overall risk.

Adding some small cap equities to your portfolio will reduce the overall volatility of the portfolio, as there is a low correlation between the performance of small cap stocks and other equity asset classes. One of the main reasons for this lower correlation in Canada is that the small cap index has a 27% larger percentage of consumer and cyclical stocks in it than the S&P/TSX Composite. Interest sensitive stocks represent a large percentage of the large cap equities in Canada but not so in the small caps.

After reviewing a number of small cap mutual funds and their managers I have determined that the Elliot & Page Growth Opportunities fund offers the best management in this area in Canada. The manager Ted Whitehead follows a very disciplined approach to selecting and selling positions within the fund. The fund currently holds close to 100 different companies in the small and mid cap sectors. The sector allocations are illustrated in the pie chart below along side the funds performance over the past five years.


Did You Know?

The requirement to have adequate funds saved for your retirement is becoming more and more critical as our population ages. Did you know that currently only 12.9% of our population is 65+ but in 30 years from now individuals 65+ will represent 22.7% of our population. Currently there are 4.76 working age adults for each person 65 and over but in 30 years there will only be 2.44. For reasons like this it is even more evident that careful planning for your retirement and how it will be funded is critical.

 

RBC Dominion Securities Inc. is a member company under RBC Investments. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable at the time obtained but neither RBC Dominion Securities Inc. nor its employees, agents, or information suppliers can guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This report is not and under no circumstances is to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. This report is furnished on the basis and understanding that neither RBC Dominion Securities Inc. nor its employees, agents, or information suppliers is to be under any responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect thereof. The inventories of RBC Dominion Securities Inc. may from time to time include securities mentioned herein. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. and Royal Bank of Canada are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. Investment Advisors are employees of RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Member CIPF. ?Trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. RBC Investments is a registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence.©Copyright 2003. All rights reserved

RBC Dominion Securities Inc. and its affiliates may have an investment banking or other relationship with some or all of the issuers menioned herein and may trade in any of the securities mentioned herein either for their own account or the accounts of their customers. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. and its affiliates also may issue options on securities mentioned herein and may trade in options issued by others. Accordingly, RBC Dominion Securities Inc. or its affiliates may at any time have a long or short position in any such security or option thereon.

Insurance products are offered through RBC DS Financial Services Inc and RBC DS Financial Services (Ontario) Inc. (« companies ») The companies and RBC Dominion Securities Inc. are member companies under RBC Investments and are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. When discussing and selling life insurance products, Investment Advisors are acting as Insurance Representatives of RBC DS Financial Services Inc or RBC DS Financial Services (Ontario) Inc.