Markets at a Glance

April 15, 2003


Kathy Findlay
Vice President &   
 Investment Advisor

Phone: (604) 257-7055
Fax: (604) 681-4262
kathy.findlay@rbc.com

Irfhan Jiwani
Associate
Phone: (604) 257-7077
irfhan.jiwani@rbc.com

Key Market Facts

April 15, 2003

  Level YTD
Indices    
S&P 500 890.81 1.25%
DJIA 8,402.36 0.73%
S&P/TSX 6,488.18 -1.91%
Currencies / Commodities
CAD / US 1.4486 -7.95%
US / EURO 1.0799 2.98%
Gold $US 324.90 -6.69%
Crude Oil $US 29.41 -5.74%
Natural Gas $US 5.77 20.48%
Interest Rates
Canadian Bank Rate 3.50% 16.67%
Canadian Prime Rate 5.00% 11.11%
Fed Funds Rate 1.25% 0.00%
Us Prime Rate 4.25% 0.00%

Government Bond Yields


US
Canada
2 Year
1.67%

3.86%

5 Year
2.91%
4.41%
10 Year
3.98%

5.08%

30 Year
4.95%

5.54%



Bank of Canada Raises Interest Rates 25 Basis Points

The Bank of Canada again raised interest rates today, increasing the Bank Rate to 3.5% and causing major banks to increase prime to 5%. The bank reported that the level of economic activity in Canada is near full production capacity and inflation is well above their 2 percent target band.

Canada is the only G7 country currently raising interest rates. The other 6 have either recently lowered or left unchanged short-term rates in an effort to stimulate aggregate demand and encourage investment. This is the principal reason the Canadian dollar has appreciated over the past four months, most notably against the US dollar. The rate of appreciation has been significant partially due to the small size of the historically thinly traded Canadian currency market and in my opinion unsustainable for very long. However, in the short term everyone seems to love Canada.

The chart below illustrates the monthly level of the Canadian/US dollar exchange over the past ten years. There are two concerns that I currently have with respect to the Canadian dollar. Currently, 85% of Canada’s total exports are exported to the US. How will our absence from the US lead coalition in Iraq affect our trade relationship with the US going forward and at what point do our exports become too expensive for the rest of the world due to our dramatically improved dollar? As well, when growth picks up south of the border (which we will see in the last half of 2003), there will be increased tightening pressure on US rates, which will tend to strengthen the US currency vis-à-vis the rest of the world.

The strength in the Canadian dollar provides an excellent opportunity for individuals to buy undervalued, fundamentally strong US companies with cheaper US dollars. Especially at a time when the US appears to be coming slowly out from under the negative environment that it has been experiencing over the past two years and many good businesses are fairly or under-valued.

US / Canadian Exchange Rate

Charitable Giving

If allocating funds to a favorite charity or fraternal organization is an important part of your overall financial plan, then you may want to consider insurance as the vehicle to do it.

For those individuals that would like to reduce their taxable income while they are alive and provide a benefit to a charity once they are gone, an insurance policy can be an effective tool.

If you buy a policy on your life and assign the policy to a charity, your monthly premiums become a tax- deductible, charitable donation, which allows you to benefit from your donation on an ongoing basis while you are alive.

Upon your passing the charity will receive the death benefit from the insurance company.

For more information on charitable giving please call either myself at 604 257-7055 or my associate Jas Salh at 604 257-7359.

Market Focus is Back on Business

Markets in general are now focused back on business. The speculation of war with Iraq kept the markets very nervous throughout the beginning of 2003 until March 13th when coalition began their campaign against Sadam Hussein. Now that the situation in Iraq has cooled down significantly and the emphasis is more on rebuilding than bombing, the market focus is now redirected back to businesses and how well they are going to meet or beat their earnings expectations.

As we set into another quarter of earnings reports there is a great deal of anticipation as to how companies will do relative to analysts expectation. Today Johnson & Johnson reported earning that were a penny above expectation and Citigroup, who reported yesterday, beat expectations by 2 cents. As the US economy starts to turn around these businesses with solid balance sheets and positive cash flow will be the ones to outperform. This will be especially so for those who have paid and continue to pay a consistent dividend. When capital growth is slow the additional benefit of a 1-3% dividend definitely helps the overall return.

Now is a great opportunity to revisit the principals by which you invest, taking into consideration your investment objectives, constraints, operating principals, investment philosophy and discipline. I encourage all of you to consider reviewing this with me over the next couple of months to confirm that the investment policy that we are currently using for you is going to meet your long term objectives. Call my associate Jas Salh at 604 257-7359 today to book an appointment.

Did You Know?

I will be away on vacation for the last two weeks of April, returning on May 5th. In my absence my associate Jas Salh (604) 257-7359 will be able to assist you with any request that you may have. I will respond to any emails or voice messages upon my return.

 

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